Tuesday was a test for all of us. Will the winners do what they promised? Promised to whom? Our country, our state, our neighbors? Will they keep instead the promises they made to supporters, anonymous, or public loudmouth pressure supporters. Promises like “Republicans will never lose another election in Wisconsin after I’m elected governor.”(Tim Michels) Inevitably candidates told each constituency what they thought would bring in votes. Promises like “You can keep your own doctor.” (Barack Obama) Hopefully, some of those who repeated a big lie were only doing it to get the support of a teller of bigger lies, and once in office will do the right thing, most of the time, we hope.
Politicians are not known for telling the truth. Some come closer than others. Like the old saw, there are little white lies, big black lies, and political promises. A gaffe can be defined as a politician accidentally telling the truth. It’s hard to be accurate all the time, and some political misinformation is just that, a number or date remembered incorrectly or a sentence poorly worded. Then there are outright made-up fantasies, like election denial, and everything in between. To rig a national election with thousands of independent precincts would be a monumental, virtually impossible task.
Here are some ways to test political speech. Whenever politician A quotes politician B it’s probably not accurate, but may be based on part of what was said, out of context. When politician C tells you what politician D thinks, there is no reason at all to believe it. Of course, when any pol tells you what the other party wants it might be taken from reality, or it can be somewhere between his imagination and a psychological need to blaspheme any opponent. Read the party platform, if they have one. Judge the candidate by what he or she said and did; not by what others say he or she will do in the future. Likewise, not on what he or she says their opponent will do. Remember any prediction is only a hypothetical, because no one knows what tomorrow, let alone next year, will bring. Politics is the art of the practical, Von Bismarck advised us. The practical changes from moment to moment. Everything predicted last year became inaccurate when Putin opened fire in Ukraine. Everything predicted when the Russian army rolled into Ukraine became inaccurate when Ukraine really fought back.
Putin’s attack on his neighbor has become an attack on the post Marshall plan world order as we know it. Most people alive today have never known it any other way. Before that the powers in Europe were almost always at war one way or another. “Europe is too thickly planted with kingdoms to be long at peace” (Thomas Payne 1776). Tribalism on a larger scale.
The G20 group of well-off countries account for over 5 billion of the about 7 billion people alive today (70%). Outside the G20 the old order of constant tribal conflict still prevails. This is particularly a problem in Africa where the boundaries were created artificially by European colonizers. We have unfortunately a couple bad actors in the G20 meddling in their neighbor’s business.
The next two years will be critical to whether the 75-year post war peace and prosperity can be maintained. Poverty has been reduced 80% and most wars are local. Will those elected seek Jeremy Bentham’s “greatest good for the greatest number” or aggrandizement for the selected few. Recent experience shows that ‘the greatest good for the greatest number’ also benefits the selected few by creating more opportunity and more total wealth to share. Instead, will immediate greed win out?
The next big test, will the European members of NATO indefinitely tolerate Putin’s attacks: shortages, inflation, pollution, radiation and refugees. They tolerated Hitler as long as the bombing was next door or will one of them finally declare what is affecting them: shortages, inflation, pollution, radiation and refugees to be an attack? They tolerated the Barbary pirates for 400 years. Are they waiting for Putin to bomb Warsaw, or Berlin?
Ken Obenski is a forensic engineer, now safety and freedom advocate in South Kona. He writes a biweekly column for West Hawaii Today. Send feedback to obenskik@gmail.com